Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
