Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
